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 Post subject: Find out if Yasir prefers Ankrahmun, Carlin or Liberty Bay
PostPosted: 25 May 2016, 06:47 
team member
Name: Diaba dos Infernus
World: Rubera

Posts: 119
In a recent conversation with a friend I made in the most recent Test Server, she mentioned a certain kind of “Yasir thread” in her game world board, that gets updated every day by the local community to make it easier for that very same local community to track down if Oriental Trader mini world change is active or not and, if active, where does the NPC can be found.

With a quick search around other world boards, I found several local communities also were adept of the same method or very similar methods like taking note only if NPC Yasir is actively buying things, instead of writing both days with and without him some of the threads do.

In one of them, there is even a single player who tracks down all active mini world changes and provides information on their related NPCs and portal locations, day by day, and that has been doing this for the last couple years! A huge effort and time-consuming work.

...And, as one can imagine, this kind of work is a valuable source of important information and statistics waiting for someone to dig them up. Specially this last case that, by the way, occurs in Pacera.

I was always curious to know if NPC Yasir has any preference for any of the 3 possible cities he is programmed to show on and I am sure most of you have wondered once or twice “why did Yasir never comes to free account area?”

At least anyone who have ran out of premium time without selling the goodies stored in depot and spent several days or even months waiting for the Oriental Trader to show just in the right place knows what I am talking about.

But where do you think NPC Yasir would prefer to go while looking forward for good deals?
Would he prefer to stay closer to his origins by the daramanian melting sun that punishes Ankrahmun's Pyramids from above or would he prefer to stay surrounded by the company of beautiful Amazons that rule Carlin?
Or maybe he likes the chaotic pirate ports of Liberty Bay the most, truly a den of debauchery, violence and sin.

To determine NPC Yasir's preferences and answer that question, I gathered and analyzed data from 11 so called “Yasir theads” scattered around the World Boards on forum.tibia.com. Summed up and excluding trolls proved trolling, I got a sample of more than 700 days in which active Oriental Trader mini world change was active.

Those worlds are Astera, Celesta, Irmada, Luminera, Magera, Nerana, Nika, Pacera, Quitana, Rowana and Secura, being Astera, Luminera, Pacera and Secura the most reliable and valuable threads, followed by Irmada and Nerana and then the remaining ones.

Finally, please note that I'll no be adding the exact days when Oriental Trader was active because:

    1- It would be chaotic. Several of those threads, like Luminera, Nerana and Pacera are there since 2014. Astera is out there since 2013 and Secura since 2012, almost 4 years old. If you're willing to look at the exact dates, they are public as long as the thread is kept alive by its local community, and you can either access them by manually entering the world boards on forum.tibia.com or use the links I'll be providing in the references.

    2- I am not trying to find any kind of pattern to predict when this world change will be active or where will NPC Yasir be next time he shows up.
    It was already stated by Cipsoft Members couple times that it's not out of the common NPC Yasir showing several days in a row or stay 6, 7, 8 weeks in a row without showing her fancy turban in Tibian lands.
    The purpose of this study is merely to determinate what are the chances for each town and, thus, if Yasir has any preference between the possible locations, thus, the exact day/month/year is not relevant to this study, only the number of times Oriental Trader World Change was active.


GATHERED DATA

ASTERA

The thread in Astera was started by Eskarine :druid: on March 24, 2013 and, up to May 24,2016, I found a total of 176 valid entries.
What I considered to be a “valid entry”, by the way, is a post made by a member of the local community that was not alleged to be false by other players (this avoids trolls) and that also followed the main pattern of date and location (this avoid duplicates).
From this 176 visits to Astera, 64 were to Ankrahmun, 47 to Carlin and 65 to Liberty Bay.

Image

In this World, NPC Yasir was very balanced between Ankrahmun and Liberty Bay, but not when compared with Carlin. There is a light preference for Liberty Bay.


CELESTA

This is one modest thread due to its short lifespan. Started by the Julmuust :mage: in April 06, 2016, there was only 8 valid entries until May 24, 2016: 02 of them were to Ankrahmun;
03 to Carlin and to Liberty Bay.

Image

Although NPC Yasir has visited Celesta only few times during a month and a half, the numbers keeps well balanced, tied between Carlin and Liberty Bay.


IRMADA

Created by Black Chaos Emperor :pally: on Dec 1st,2014, this thread have 44 of what I considered valid entries until the date of May 24,2016, from which 15 were to Ankrahmun; 13 to Carlin and 16 were to Liberty Bay.

Image

Again, a very balanced sample, with Liberty Bay differing only by 1 visit from Ankrahmun.


LUMINERA

On air since July 27, 2014, the day Zaeril Tolic :knight: created the thread, Luminera have one of the most interesting data for researchers, with players keeping track not only of the days Yasir is visiting Luminera, but also when he is not there, thus, giving more accurate and reliable information about the worldchange, making it sure that the NPC did not go unnoticed since its last report.
From 110 visits Yasir made, 36 were in Ankrahmun; 40 on Carlin and 34 on Liberty Bay.

Image

It appears that Luminera's Calin have something other game worlds did not have until now. Somehow, Yasir has a preference for the Amazonian city by the vast green fields instead of Liberty Bay, one of the most visited towns up to now.


MAGERA

Another very humble thread with a shot lifespan, Magera has been tracking down Yasir for only 5 months, sinceWalder Martz :pally: created the thread on January 20, 2016. There are only 19 occurrences until May 24, 2016 and from those, 03 were on Ankrahmun; 07 were on Carlin and 09 were on Liberty Bay.

Image

Once more, a slight preference for Liberty Bay than other cities, although it is very close to Carlin, it was not very balanced when we consider Ankrahmun.


NERANA

Tracking Yasir since October 18, 2014, this thread started by Hard Beat :pally: have 52 valid entries until May 24,2016, from which 16 were to Ankrahmun; 22 were to Carlin and 14 were to Liberty Bay.

Image

While Ankrahmun and Liberty Bay are well balanced between them, Nerana's Carlin seems to be way more charming an attractive at Yasir eyes, just like it happened in Luminera.


NIKA

Ding :mage: created his “Yasir thread” in February 29, 2016 and, between its start and May 24, 206, only 06 valid entries were noted in its short lifespan. From all occurrences of Yasir in this Gameworld, 02 were on Ankrahmun; 02 were on Carlin and 02 on Liberty Bay.

Image

We can't be sure if Nika is just an unlucky gameworld or if Yasir passed unnoticed several times but the few data inside Nika's “Yasir thread” provides us with the most balanced numbers of this research, with equals 02 visits for each Town.


PACERA

This is the most impressive and trustful of all those threads I've been looking into. Smugglehunny AKA Smuu :druid: has been doing a really great job in registering every single mini world change that occurs in Pacera since May 26, 2014, providing additional information about them and also location of portals, orcs and even Noodles, the Royal Dog.
Smuu states that only two days were missing in the first year and, for what I have seen, other couple days were lost due to previously explained unexpected reasons. Impressive work.

From its start until May 24,2016, almost thread's 2nd anniversary, I counted a total of 103 visits from Yasir, distributed on 32 visits on Ankrahmun; 36 on Carlin and 35 on Liberty Bay.

Image

Another slightly preference for Carlin, the city where alcohol is prohibited, with a very low variation of numbers between the 3 possibilities. We may be starting to get somewhere.


UNITERA

Unitera's thread was created by Cass Hubin :knight: on January 15, 2016 and have Yasir reported 19 times until the date of May 24,2016, a number very close to Magera's thread, created only 5 days later. From this total number, 12 were to Ankrahmun; 05 were to Carlin and only 02 were to Liberty Bay.

Image

Although the total number of times Yasir appeared seems to be okay during this January to May lifespan, Unitera shows us a very unbalanced preference from Yasir to visit Ankrahmun. It was more than two times the number he was in Carlin and six time more the number of visits to Liberty Bay.


ROWANA

Another case of very young thread, Zih de Kanzaru :knight: 's thread is alive since March 31, 2016, roughly 2 months old, and until the date of May 24,2016, only 09 valid visits were made by Yasir in that Game World, being 02 on Ankrahmun; 02 on Carlin and 05 on Liberty Bay.

Image

Again, we are back to the slightly preference by one of the cities while having good balanced numbers between the remaining.


SECURA

The last one is, for sure, a valuable antiquè. Tracking Yasir's steps since August 23, 2012, this creation of Hiddey :pally: is almost a token of work and cooperation that did not let the thread die after almost 4 years.

From it's start until the date of May 24, 2016, Yasir was reported to be sighted 157 times already and, from that number, 63 were about her ships docked in Ankrahmun, 47 about Carlin and another 47 in favor of Liberty Bay.

Image

I confess this was the most strange of the results by world. There is a clear inclination to Ankrahmun that will, for sure, heavily influence the final results. I don't know what may have caused that but it seems Secura's Yasir either Carlin and Liberty Bay are somehow hostile to foreign merchants or he does love to stay close to his oriental culture.


:statsup: RESULTS BY WORLD :statsup:

After analyzing the data world-by-world, we have the following results:

    Ankrahmun is the preferred location in 2 Game Worlds: Unitera and Secura;
    Carlin is the preferred location in 4 Game Worlds: Celesta (tied with Liberty Bay), Luminera, Nerana and Pacera;
    Liberty Bay is the preferred location in 5 Game Worlds: Astera, Celesta (tied with Carlin), Irmada, Magera and Rowana.
Note: Nika has the exact same number to each city, so it was not considered.

Image

:statsup: PRELIMINARY RESULTS :statsup:

At a first sight, Liberty Bay seems to be the winner but, to determine Yasir's preference, we must go deeper and put together all the gathered data. This way, the mark of 703 days of active Oriental Trader mini world change is reached.

Ignoring Secura for now, the amount of occurrences of the Oriental Trader from the first 10 Game Worlds is 184 to Ankrahmun, 177 to Carlin and 185 to Liberty Bay.
As it can be seen in the graphic below, those number are really well balanced and every city has, virtually, the same 33% chance to receive Yasir when his miniworld change activates.


Image

:statsup: TOTAL RESULTS :statsdown:

But if the idea was to sum up every why did Secura get excluded?
Simply because Secura and its bizarre RNG seems to be way out of the curve observed on most of the other worlds and, thus, influence the final numbers to what I considered to be a substantial rise of the Ankrahmun numbers and fall of Carlin. Anyway, those are the final results:


Image

:professor: CONCLUSION :professor:

Even though Secura raised up the chances for Ankrahmun to be Yasir's most preferred location while decreasing Carlin's numbers, that feeling of “Yasir never comes to free account area” seems to be only an impression, given Carlin's chances of 31,86%.

Comparing the final results and the preliminary results, it is probabilistic safe to say that all cities have the very same 33% of chance to Yasir appear when the mini world change Oriental Trader is active.


If you liked this article, you may like my other unusual researches:

A Botanic Guide: How Rookgaard's Flora looks like in RL
http://www.tibia-stats.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=315

Rook: Mino Mage room and why we can't see the chests inside
http://www.tibia-stats.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=327

Browse Field: Find what is hidden on Rookgaard
http://www.tibia-stats.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=287

Small Research about Magic Level Advancement of no vocation Characters
http://www.tibia-stats.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=278


Last edited by Diaba dos Infernus on 25 May 2016, 07:19, edited 3 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Does Yasir prefer Ankrahmun, Carlin or Liberty Bay?
PostPosted: 25 May 2016, 06:49 
team member
Name: Diaba dos Infernus
World: Rubera

Posts: 119
References


Also, A huge thanks to thread owners and eveyone who still feeds up Yasir threads and made this research possible. You guys are doing a valuable work. :thumbup:


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 Post subject: Re: Find out if Yasir prefers Ankrahmun, Carlin or Liberty B
PostPosted: 27 May 2016, 02:22 
Name: gentleman hidor

Posts: 2
Very very nice! I always wondered about Yasir preferences.

This is a really good example of what makes it hard to get reliable statistics about anything on Tibia (or anything rng-based). Hard to get huge sample sizes, hard to rely on many sources of data, hard to not allow biases.


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 Post subject: Re: Find out if Yasir prefers Ankrahmun, Carlin or Liberty B
PostPosted: 07 Jun 2016, 09:35 
team member
Name: Razzdar

Posts: 71
Great work there Diaba!

Razzdar

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"No one can whistle a symphony. It takes a whole orchestra to play it."-H.E. Luccock


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